Markets, decoded.

Rates markets have absorbed the hold. What they haven't absorbed is the asymmetry of what comes next.

Russell 2000 leadership has historically preceded macro inflection points. This time the setup is unusually clean.

Free cash flow yields and capital discipline have made energy the unloved trade institutions are now crowding.

The shape of the curve has changed three times in six months. Equities have noticed twice.

The top quintile is still spending. The bottom three are visibly retrenching. The middle is the swing.